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2018-06-01 08:41:02
Market Update 6/1/18



Big beat on this morning’s NFP headline employment number and wages rising faster than forecasted.


The economy added 223,000 new jobs in April topping economists’ forecasts of 190,000.   (See Chart Below)


The Unemployment Rate fell to 3.8%from 3.9% and continues to stay at multi-decade lows.  (See Chart Below)


Average hourly earnings in April rose 0.3% month over month, and now up 2.7% year over year.


This is a strong report in every aspect.  The Fed is probably breathing a sigh of relief this morning as wages look to finally start grinding higher as a product of the tight labor market.


Following the report  the yield on the 10yr Note rose to 2.91%.  Yields were already moving higher in the overnight session as political tensions in Italy and Spain ebbed.


This has been a volatile 2 weeks for interest rates as 10yr yields traded as high as 3.12% on May 18th and as low as 2.81% this past Tuesday.   Fears that Italy might form a coalition government that could vote on an exit from the EU sent bond yields falling earlier in the week.   Trade and tariff rhetoric from the U.S. and it’s trading partners this week has also helped  to keep bond yields lower as trade wars are seen as slowing global growth.


The Fed meets later this month and is expected to raise rates 0.25bps.  After this morning’s employment report, markets have priced in a better than 97% chance that they do hike at their June meeting.   The odds for additional rates hikes later this year are less certain.   Some economists believe this hike in June will be the last for 2018.  Others see 1 more and some see 2 more rate hikes.  Bottom line is the Fed will be dependent on future economic data when making their policy decisions.   If we continue to get employment reports like today than a total of 4 hikes this year could still be on the table.



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